Navigating a circular future for the built environment: The Futures Triangle

Patrick Moloney, Scott Brookes, Ricardo Weigend Rodriguez

January 17, 2024

As part of our ongoing Circular Foresight series, this article aims to untangle the complexities and possibilities of the building industry's circular transition. It builds upon the foundational concepts introduced in our first article.

By applying the "Futures Triangle", a foresight method that scrutinises the impact of the past, present, and future, we can gain insights into how the circular economy can support the industry’s transition to a more sustainable pathway.

The impacts of the building industry

The building sector is vital for the economy, creating approximately 13% of the global GDP. However, it is also the world’s largest consumer of natural resources, representing 36% of the total energy used worldwide, 39% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and generating approximately 35% of all waste . These figures show that there is a pressing need to de-couple economic growth from ever depleting, finite natural resources, demanding the industry shifts from a linear “take, make, dispose” model to a circular one.

Defining the Futures Triangle

The Futures Triangle is an important foresight method that creates a comprehensive future map of the building industry, using three essential dimensions:

Weight of the past (what holds us back): Examining historical systems, preconceptions, legacy processes, and barriers within the building industry that act as constraints, hindering progress towards the preferred future.
Push of the present (driving change forward): Considering current trends, emerging technologies, and observable drivers that align with the building industry's desired future, enabling proactive decision-making.
Pull of the future (towards a desired state): Visioning the preferred future condition in the building industry. It delineates the industry's aspirations, setting the trajectory for its objectives and actions in a Circular Economy.

A valuable tool for early engagement with participants and stakeholders, the Futures Triangle offers insight into future concepts and driving forces of change, encouraging strategic proactivity, and ensuring that circular initiatives are seamlessly integrated into the industry's core practices. It not only aids in understanding the complexities of the transition but also cultivates a sustainable and innovative future for the building sector.

By envisioning a distinct future, understanding current accelerators, and recognising historical barriers, actors in the building industry can make well-informed decisions today.

Ricardo Weigend Rodriguez

Principal Consultant, Strategic Sustainability Consulting

The weight of the past

With historical practices rooted in the linear economic model, the building industry continues to rely heavily on new resources and virgin materials. Recognising and understanding the impact of these traditional practices on the industry's current state is pivotal to steering the transition towards a circular economy, and it involves challenging in our ingrained perception of ‘how things work’.

These historical weights can act as barriers and hinder innovation, but they can also offer reservoirs of wisdom from which we can draw parallels and lessons. Understanding this interplay can contribute to our ability to overcome barriers and leverage opportunities, fostering a more circular built environment. Historical weights could include:

Financial barriers, resulting in prioritising conventional construction projects over circular initiatives.
Lack of policy reforms that support circular practices.
Cultural resistance, demonstrated by the industry’s preference to stick to traditional, proven methods rather than exploring more circular practices.

“The present is the past rolled up for action, and the past is the present unrolled for understanding.”

Ariel Durant

The Lessons of History

The push of the present: Current trends and innovations.

The building industry is in flux, with numerous trends and innovations shaping its current landscape. From geopolitical supply chain pressures to sustainable construction practices and advancements in building materials and technologies, understanding these trends is crucial for leveraging opportunities for the circular economy. Examples include:

Construction practices and building material technologies: Circular economy practices, such as designing for longevity, deconstruction, flexibility of use, reuse of reclaimed elements, and circular material sourcing, are integral to future building projects. The development and evolution of how we build is intertwined with advancements in building material technologies. For circularity to enter the mainstream, materials, business models, and design practices need to evolve, with more focus on maintaining economic value in products through long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, refurbishing, and recycling. The rising demand for reused elements is supported by the emergence of new testing and recertification businesses.
Enhancements in policy and legislation: The European Commission's circular economy action plan and the updated EU Taxonomy guide real estate investments based on circular principles. The launch of a voluntary sustainability class in the Danish Building Regulations reflects a national commitment to circular initiatives, incorporating life-cycle analysis, resource consumption requirements and CO₂ limits for new buildings. The building industry's future circular business models are expected to align with regulations and policies that promote responsible consumption, production, and effective partnerships, as outlined in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

"This present moment used to be the unimaginable future."

Stewart Brand

The Clock of the Long Now, 1999

Through the post-industrial evolution of the building industry, an inclination towards maximising operational performance reflects the industry's continuous pursuit of efficiency, innovation, and optimal user experience. But as the awareness of embodied carbon and planetary sustainability increases, the challenge of harmonising these criteria becomes more complex, demanding we ask ourselves for every project – what does excellence look like in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term?

Incorporating circular practices should not be seen as a hindrance to performance but rather as an opportunity to redefine what excellence means in the long-term. Recognising the industry's shift from a technical or mechanistic focus to a more biological or systems-oriented one is crucial for navigating current trends and innovations.

Pull of the Future: Envisioning a circular built environment

Envisioning a circular built environment entails cradle-to-cradle design, employing reusable, non-toxic, and recyclable materials. The building industry should aspire to achieve carbon neutrality, resource efficiency, and the integration of smart technologies to enhance sustainability, with a vision to create structures that exist in harmony with nature, utilising renewable resources and fostering social equity. Initiatives promoting net-zero buildings, community-driven sustainable developments, and partnerships focusing on sustainable material innovation align well with the envisioned future. Future pulls include:

Regenerative design: The building industry of the future will increasingly emphasise regenerative design as a holistic approach to improving social and environmental conditions. Regenerative design prioritises materials sourced locally, and which are more easily replenished or regenerated. Moreover, it promotes utilising natural systems within the built environment, such as capturing, storing, and distributing rainwater for various purposes, thereby reducing reliance on municipal water systems. Regenerative design incorporates practices like green infrastructure and biophilic architecture to contribute actively to the restoration of ecosystems, fostering a harmonious relationship with nature and promoting environmental regeneration.
Net zero: In the future, the industry will align with net zero goals globally, recognising the urgency of mitigating climate change. Aiming to achieve carbon neutrality, this will involve the extensive use of renewable resources, energy-efficient design, and the integration of innovative technologies. The future is shaped by the imminent impacts of climate change and urban challenges, such as population density, material scarcity, and the imperative for resilient infrastructure. For a circular economy to go beyond and contribute to a net positive impact, its implementation should seek to enhance nature while simultaneously promoting the reduction of overall consumption, addressing inequitable resource distribution, and mitigating wealth disparities.
Tax Shift: Tax to Non-renewables and Tax Exemption to Renewables: A notable trend in the building industry of the future is a shift towards sustainable practices through innovative economic measures. Governments and policymakers are considering tax incentives to steer the industry towards renewable resources. Tax structures are being revised to impose higher taxes on non-renewable materials, encouraging construction firms to adopt sustainable alternatives. Simultaneously, renewables receive tax exemptions, fostering a virtuous cycle where environmentally friendly practices are economically advantageous. This approach not only aligns with national goals but also reshapes the economic landscape of the building industry, incentivising a more sustainable future.

"Our ability to create the future is unlimited, our ability to endure it is not."

Ayn Rand

American essayist and philosopher

Integrating the Futures Triangle into circular building strategies

Applying the Futures Triangle to circular building strategies provides a structured and comprehensive approach for the building industry to navigate the complex challenges of transitioning to a circular economy. This integration facilitates the identification of potential risks, optimisation of resource utilisation, and the fostering of sustainability principles within the sector.

For instance, as the building industry endeavours to implement circular building strategies, the Futures Triangle is a foundation for aligning aspirations with practical actions. This underscores the transformative potential of adopting foresight methods.

Applying the Futures Triangle — Our recommendations

Clarify the Pull of the Future:

Emphasise the importance of clarity in articulating the image of the preferred future. Provide detailed explanations rather than using vague terms.
Express ambitious visions, understanding that the image of the future is meant to be aspirational.

Interactive collaboration:

Encourage interactive collaboration to discuss and refine responses during the review of each axis, allocating sufficient time to fill in each axis. Engage in meaningful discussions to ensure a comprehensive understanding of each element.

Address coherence in vision:

Acknowledge that the initial completion of the Future Triangle may result in dispersed elements of the preferred future.
Highlight the importance of subsequent work synthesising and unifying these elements into a coherent and shared vision.

Relevance of a unified future image:

Emphasise the importance of a unified future image, as this shared vision serves as a guiding framework for the team and should align with the goals and aspirations of the organisation.

Post-session synthesis:

Highlight the team's responsibility for consolidating all elements in subsequent work, crafting one or two sentences that encapsulate a cohesive vision of the future.
Ensure the resulting vision aligns with the team's collective understanding.

Policy-driven circular progression in the building industry – an illustrative example

Here is an illustrative example of the Futures Triangle applied using one element of each of the triangle axes (one weight, one push and one pull):

Past challenges: The building industry faced hurdles due to outdated regulations and a lack of policies encouraging circular practices. This hindered the full embrace of circular approaches, creating a barrier to transition.
Present momentum: The current landscape is witnessing a positive shift. Initiatives like the European Commission's circular economy action plan signal a commitment to sustainability, fostering a regulatory framework that urges construction companies to pivot towards circular business models.
Future vision: Looking ahead, a strategic tax shift is envisioned to propel the industry towards circular practices. Governments will consider innovative tax structures, like higher taxes on non-renewables and exemptions for renewables. This aligns with national sustainability goals, reshaping the industry's economic landscape into a virtuous environmental, social and economic benefits cycle.

In this journey of circular transformation, the industry wrestles with past policy challenges, navigates the evolving regulatory present, and steers towards a future incentivised by tax shifts. Policy-driven change emerges as the driving force behind a resilient, circular, and economically viable building industry.

Conclusion

In navigating the circular future of the built environment, the application of the Futures Triangle emerges as a guide towards a resilient and economically viable building industry. The weight of the past, with its historical challenges and ingrained linear practices, is acknowledged not as an anchor but as a springboard for learning, offering reservoirs of wisdom to overcome barriers and leverage opportunities.

The push of the present, evident in current trends and innovations, propels the industry forward, demanding a harmonious balance between efficiency, innovation, and planetary sustainability.

Finally, the pull of the future urges a collective envisioning of a circular built environment characterised by regenerative design, net-zero ambitions, and a transformative tax shift towards reusable and recyclable materials.

The Futures Triangle proves instrumental in providing strategic foresight, allowing early engagement with stakeholders, and fostering a proactive approach to circular initiatives. This foresight method is not just a theoretical exercise; it is a dynamic tool for shaping decisions today, aligning aspirations with practical actions, and ensuring that the circular initiatives seamlessly integrate into the industry's core practices. The Futures Triangle, therefore, stands as a catalyst for transformative change, cultivating a sustainable and innovative future for the building sector.

In conclusion, as the building industry grapples with the challenges of the past, embraces the dynamics of the present, and envisions a circular future, the Futures Triangle serves as a compass, guiding strategic decision-making, fostering collaboration, and steering the industry towards a future where buildings are not just structures but living testaments to the principles of circularity, resilience, and visionary innovation.

Join us in this exploration and anticipate this series' third and final article, exploring the Scenarios method. Crafting four scenarios derived from insights in the Futures Triangle article, our approach will provide a succinct yet comprehensive analysis of potential trajectories for the built environment, encompassing both possible and preferable futures.

Want to know more?

Patrick Moloney
Director, Strategic Sustainability Consulting
+45 51 61 66 46
Scott Brookes
Director, Building Retrofitting and Refurbishment
+44 7971 987249
Ricardo Weigend Rodriguez
Principal Consultant

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